China Merchants Securities: April is expected to become A share from the turning point to attack the industry allocation plus steady growth

2022-06-02 0 By

Zhitong financial APP learned that China Merchants Securities issued A share April strategy report said that steady growth has become A top priority, real estate and infrastructure new construction is expected to further accelerate, real estate policy is expected to more emphasis on healthy cycle, property sales are expected to usher in A turning point, new infrastructure related policies and local government actions are expected to further force.Upstream resources, post-natal cycle consumption, new energy infrastructure is the market’s preferred direction of attack.Comprehensive fundamentals, events and policies, steady growth has become the core thinking background of the industry, the first choice to accelerate the benefit plate;Real estate policy to further emphasize the healthy cycle, the plight of the reversal of the industry can be concerned;New infrastructure is still booming.Idea 1: after outbreak link across various construction and real estate is expected to enter the peak period of construction, and reduced demand of commodities demand further improve, the most benefit from plate, such as part of the industry in some niche in stable cash flow improvement, put on the limited supply, prices will increase steadily, and valuations are extremely cheap, valuation center there is the possibility of ascension.Idea 2: further relaxation of real estate policy, land sales are expected to usher in the dawn of improvement.Postpartum cycle consumption is expected to face a difficult reversal, although the quarterly report is under pressure, but the market after the quarterly report landing will game performance inflection point.Idea 3: New infrastructure, new energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure are the direction for the government to stabilize growth in the next stage. Among them, the performance of new energy infrastructure is generally good and its valuation is low after lowered expectations, which can serve as an important supplement to the strategy of stabilizing growth.Focus on;Digital infrastructure concerns.China Merchants Securities said that entering April 2022, with the easing of the epidemic and steady growth policies gradually taking effect, it is expected to reverse the pessimistic expectations for corporate profits.At the same time, the negative factors that suppress the performance of A shares are expected to gradually fall to the ground, A shares will gradually reverse the decline, there is A turning point from defense to attack.In the context of the 5.5% growth target, stable growth is expected to become one of the most important tasks in the next stage after the current outbreak is expected to be brought under control soon.The Fed is likely to tighten more aggressively on May 4th and the DOLLAR index and Treasury yields could have further upside.But after May 4th it will be hard for the Fed to tighten further.In addition, the spillover risk to China from the Russia-Ukraine situation is diminishing and concerns about the overseas listing status of Chinese companies are gradually being resolved, helping to ease market sentiment.Risk factors are gradually easing, positive factors are increasing, and April is expected to be the beginning of the transition from defensive to offensive.